Eugène Bakama Bope
26 August 2009
analysis
Accused war criminal Jean-Pierre Bemba Gombo, the former vice-president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, has been granted conditional release pending his trial but a country has first to be found to accommodate him.
The prosecution at the International Criminal Court, ICC, has appealed against the decision made on August 14 - though in principle Bemba is now free to await trial outside of detention.
Legally speaking, the court probably had no choice.
If we are to believe in a fair and unprejudiced justice system, then a detainee must be granted bail, so long as he has given adequate assurances that he will appear at his trial, and will not pose any obstacle to its proceedings.
Freedom should always be the principle and detention the exception.
Bemba is head of the largest political party in the DRC - the Movement for the Liberation of Congo, MLC - and his conditional release comes at a fortuitous time.
The party, which had been flailing in the political wings, now has an excellent opportunity to regroup ahead of the country's national elections, due to be held in 2011.
The MLC fought against the Congolese government during the country's civil war between 1998 and 2003. Following the end of the hostilities, the MLC participated in the transitional government, with Bemba as one of the vice-presidents.
In the 2006 presidential elections, Bemba won the second highest number of votes in the country, marking him as a formidable opponent capable of unseating President Joseph Kabila.
The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Bemba on May 24, 2008, for his alleged involvement in atrocities committed in the Central African Republic, CAR, in 2002-2003 when MLC soldiers were drafted in to help oppose a coup attempt.
Bemba's conditional release in no way pre-determines the outcome of the trial, which is still ongoing.
But, in appealing against the decision, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, prosecutor of the court, expressed concern that Bemba could flee, and moreover could harm or intimidate witnesses crucial to his trial.
The prosecution team has so far had noticeably little success in finding anyone upon whom the atrocities in CAR can be pinned. Following lengthy investigations, Bemba was the only one to be charged.
From the very beginning, there was widespread speculation in the DRC that Bemba's detention was no more than a cynical move by Kabila to get rid of a dangerous political adversary.
News of his release is likely to reinforce this view at home, and provide the MLC with fresh ammunition against Kabila.
It has also given a tremendous morale boost to party members, who now have a central leader around whom they can once again rally.
The ultimate hope within the party is to have Bemba tried and acquitted ahead of the 2011 elections.
Having him eventually back on home soil, where he continues to enjoy considerable support, could help raise the MLC's performance at the polls significantly.
However, given the tight timetable, even if he is acquitted he may not make it back to the country in time.
For all the excitement surrounding his release, Bemba's direct influence over the party apparatus will be limited.
Inevitably, the ICC will impose tight conditions that will not allow him to reassert control over the party or interfere in the DRC's domestic politics.
Moreover, he will be barred from returning to the DRC, and so all communication with party members would have to be from abroad.
Bemba could enjoy greater influence over Congolese politics if he were to be released to a nation where there is a large expatriate community from his home country.
However, this now looks unlikely.
Bemba has suggested six countries as possible hosts: Belgium, France, Portugal, Germany, Italy and South Africa and the ICC will hold hearings with these countries in September to see what they say.
Three of them - Belgium, France and South Africa - have large Congolese populations. Bemba also maintains strong family ties in Belgium.
But none appears particularly willing to offer Bemba temporary residence.
Belgium and France have openly said that they are not in a position to accommodate the former rebel leader, fearing that accepting Bemba could create internal frictions. South Africa has remained non-committal, and stressed that it has not yet made any offer to play host.
It is therefore probable that, once he is released, Bemba will have to opt for somewhere that is more detached from his home country's affairs.
This will no doubt curtail his political involvement, even if it does not diminish the excitement with which news of his imminent release has been met by party members.
The views expressed in this article are not necessarily the views of IWPR.
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